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Ingen søgeord valgt.
40 emner vises.
Takahiro Fukushima, Shotaro Chubachi, Ho Namkoong, Shiro Otake, Kensuke Nakagawara, Hiromu Tanaka, Ho Lee, Atsuho Morita, Mayuko Watase, Tatsuya Kusumoto, Katsunori Masaki, Hirofumi Kamata, Makoto Ishii, Naoki Hasegawa, Norihiro Harada, Tetsuya Ueda, Soichiro Ueda, Takashi Ishiguro, Ken Arimura, Fukuki Saito, Takashi Yoshiyama, Yasushi Nakano, Yoshikazu Mutoh, Yusuke Suzuki, Koji Murakami, Yukinori Okada, Ryuji Koike, Yuko Kitagawa, Akinori Kimura, Seiya Imoto, Satoru Miyano, Seishi Ogawa, Takanori Kanai, Koichi Fukunaga, The Japan COVID-19 Task Force
International Journal of Infectious Diseases, 7.07.2022
Tilføjet 7.07.2022
Asaf Biber, Geva Harmelin, Dana Lev, Li Ram, Amit Shaham, Ital Nemet, Limor Kliker, Oran Erster, Michal Mandelboim, Eli Schwartz
International Journal of Infectious Diseases, 7.07.2022
Tilføjet 7.07.2022
Malaria Journal, 7.07.2022
Tilføjet 7.07.2022
Abstract
Background
Prompt diagnosis and treatment of malaria contributes to reduced morbidity, particularly among children and pregnant women; however, in Madagascar, care-seeking for febrile illness is often delayed. To describe factors influencing decisions for prompt care-seeking among caregivers of children aged < 15 years and pregnant women, a mixed-methods assessment was conducted with providers (HP), community health volunteers (CHV) and community members.
Methods
One health district from each of eight malaria-endemic zones of Madagascar were purposefully selected based on reported higher malaria transmission. Within districts, one urban and one rural community were randomly selected for participation. In-depth interviews (IDI) and focus group discussions (FGD) were conducted with caregivers, pregnant women, CHVs and HPs in these 16 communities to describe practices and, for HPs, system characteristics that support or inhibit care-seeking. Knowledge tests on malaria case management guidelines were administered to HPs, and logistics management systems were reviewed.
Results
Participants from eight rural and eight urban communities included 31 HPs from 10 public and 8 private Health Facilities (HF), five CHVs, 102 caregivers and 90 pregnant women. All participants in FGDs and IDIs reported that care-seeking for fever is frequently delayed until the ill person does not respond to home treatment or symptoms become more severe. Key care-seeking determinants for caregivers and pregnant women included cost, travel time and distance, and perception that the quality of care in HFs was poor. HPs felt that lack of commodities and heavy workloads hindered their ability to provide quality malaria care services. Malaria commodities were generally more available in public versus private HFs. CHVs were generally not consulted for malaria care and had limited commodities.
Conclusions
Reducing cost and travel time to care and improving the quality of care may increase prompt care-seeking among vulnerable populations experiencing febrile illness. For patients, perceptions and quality of care could be improved with more reliable supplies, extended HF operating hours and staffing, supportive demeanors of HPs and seeking care with CHVs. For providers, malaria services could be improved by increasing the reliability of supply chains and providing additional staffing. CHVs may be an under-utilized resource for sick children.
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Malaria Journal, 7.07.2022
Tilføjet 7.07.2022
Abstract
Background
Quality assurance (QA) of insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) delivered to malaria-endemic countries is conducted by measuring physiochemical parameters, but not bioefficacy against malaria mosquitoes. This study explored utility of cone bioassays for pre-delivery QA of pyrethroid ITNs to test the assumption that cone bioassays are consistent across locations, mosquito strains, and laboratories.
Methods
Double-blinded bioassays were conducted on twenty unused pyrethroid ITNs of 4 brands (100 nets, 5 subsamples per net) that had been delivered for mass distribution in Papua New Guinea (PNG) having passed predelivery inspections. Cone bioassays were performed on the same net pieces following World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines at the PNG Institute of Medical Research (PNGIMR) using pyrethroid susceptible Anopheles farauti sensu stricto (s.s.) and at Ifakara Health Institute (IHI), Tanzania using pyrethroid susceptible Anopheles gambiae s.s. Additionally, WHO tunnel tests were conducted at IHI on ITNs that did not meet cone bioefficacy thresholds. Results from IHI and PNGIMR were compared using Spearman’s Rank correlation, Bland–Altman (BA) analysis and analysis of agreement. Literature review on the use of cone bioassays for unused pyrethroid ITNs testing was conducted.
Results
In cone bioassays, 13/20 nets (65%) at IHI and 8/20 (40%) at PNGIMR met WHO bioefficacy criteria. All nets met WHO bioefficacy criteria on combined cone/tunnel tests at IHI. Results from IHI and PNGIMR correlated on 60-min knockdown (KD60) (rs = 0.6,p = 0.002,n = 20) and 24-h mortality (M24) (rs = 0.9,p < 0.0001,n = 20) but BA showed systematic bias between the results. Of the 5 nets with discrepant result between IHI and PNGIMR, three had confidence intervals overlapping the 80% mortality threshold, with averages within 1–3% of the threshold. Including these as a pass, the agreement between the results to predict ITN failure was good with kappa = 0.79 (0.53–1.00) and 90% accuracy.
Conclusions
Based on these study findings, the WHO cone bioassay is a reproducible bioassay for ITNs with > 80% M24, and for all ITNs provided inherent stochastic variation and systematic bias are accounted for. The literature review confirms that WHO cone bioassay bioefficacy criteria have been previously achieved by all pyrethroid ITNs (unwashed), without the need for additional tunnel tests. The 80% M24 threshold remains the most reliable indicator of pyrethroid ITN quality using pyrethroid susceptible mosquitoes. In the absence of alternative tests, cone bioassays could be used as part of pre-delivery QA.
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Malaria Journal, 7.07.2022
Tilføjet 7.07.2022
Abstract
Thailand’s National Malaria Elimination Strategy 2017–2026 seeks to increase domestic support and financing for malaria elimination. During 2018–2020, through a series of training sessions, public health officials in Thailand utilized foci-level malaria data to engage subdistrict-level government units known as Local Administrative Organizations (LAOs) with the aim of increasing their understanding of their local malaria situation, collaboration with public health networks, and advocacy for financial support of targeted interventions in villages within their jurisdictions. As a result of these efforts, total LAO funding support for malaria nearly doubled from the 2017 baseline to 2020. In 2021, a novel “LAO collaboration” feature was added to Thailand’s national malaria information system that enables tracking and visualization of LAO financial support of malaria in areas with transmission, by year, down to the subdistrict level. This case study describes Thailand’s experience implementing the LAO engagement strategy, quantifying and monitoring the financial support mobilized from LAOs, and results from a qualitative study in five high-performance provinces examining factors and approaches that foster successful local collaboration between LAOs, public health networks, and communities for malaria prevention and response. Results from the study showed that significant malaria endemicity or local outbreaks helped spur collaboration in multiple provinces. Increases in LAO support and involvement were attributable to four approaches employed by public health officials: (a) strengthening malaria literacy and response capacity of LAOs, (b) organizational leadership in response to outbreaks, (c) utilization of structural incentives, and (d) multisectoral involvement in malaria response. In two provinces, capacity building of LAOs in malaria vector control, following a precedent set by Thailand’s dengue programme, enabled LAO personnel to play both funding and implementation roles in local malaria response. Wider replication of the LAO engagement strategy across Thailand may sustain gains and yield efficiencies in the fight against malaria as the vector-borne disease workforce declines. Lessons from Thailand’s experience may be useful for malaria programmes in other geographies to support the goals and sustainability of elimination and prevention of re-establishment by improving financing through local collaboration between the health system and elected officials.
Læs mere Tjek på PubMedBMC Infectious Diseases, 7.07.2022
Tilføjet 7.07.2022
Abstract
Background
Invasive pulmonary aspergillosis (IPA) is a serious complication occurring in immunocompromised patients, who often show multiple nodular lesions with or without cavitation. Due to high mortality and poor prognosis, the earlier detection and initiation of treatment are needed, while the definitive diagnosis is often difficult to make in clinical settings. Septic pulmonary embolism (SPE) is a complication that occurs in patients with bloodstream infections (e.g., infectious endocarditis). Patients with SPE also present with multiple nodules, nodules with or without cavitation, which are quite similar to the findings of IPA. We herein report an autopsy case that showed multiple nodules due to IPA and infectious endocarditis-related SPE.
Case
A 69-year-old man receiving maintenance hemodialysis due to diabetic nephropathy was admitted with worsening skin rash due to bullous pemphigoid and toxic epidermal necrolysis. He was treated with intravenous methylprednisolone followed by an increased dose of oral prednisolone. On the 6th week of admission, he was diagnosed with infectious endocarditis after the isolation of Corynebacterium in blood samples, with a nodule lesion with cavitation in the right lung. Intravenous vancomycin was initiated. After antibacterial treatment, the nodules in the right lung gradually diminished, whereas a nodule with cavitation in the left lung emerged. The nodule in the left lung showed rapid growth along with elevation of serum β-d-glucan and galactomannan antigen. Despite starting treatment with antifungal agents, he died from respiratory failure. An autopsy revealed Groccott staining-positive aspergillus in the left lung, but not in the right lung. We found fibrosis with mitral valve vegetation, indicating a recovery from infectious endocarditis.
Conclusion
Although similar features of nodules with cavitation on CT imaging were shared with SPE and IPA, this case demonstrated that these heterogeneous diseases can occur within the lungs and the distinctly different transitions of CT imaging are helpful for suspecting the presence of multiple pathogeneses.
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BMC Infectious Diseases, 7.07.2022
Tilføjet 7.07.2022
Abstract
Background
Mucormycosis is a rare but serious opportunistic fungal infection that occurs in immunocompromised individuals, especially those with diabetic ketoacidosis. Presently, early diagnosis of the disease remains a challenge for clinicians.
Case presentation
The patient, a 68-year-old woman with type 2 diabetes mellitus, was admitted with paroxic sharp pain in the left upper abdomen. CT imaging revealed a patchy hypodense shadow of the spleen with wedge-shaped changes. The patient was not considered early for fungal infection. The diagnosis of spleen mucormycosis was not confirmed until pathological biopsy after splenectomy. After surgery, blood glucose level was controlled, acidosis was corrected, and antifungal therapy was effective.
Conclusions
We report here, for the first time ever, a case of isolated splenic mucormycosis secondary to diabetic ketoacidosis that was diagnosed and treated with antifungal drugs and splenectomy. Following splenectomy, the presence of splenic mucormycosis was confirmed when characteristic mycelia were observed in a tissue biopsy. As the location of any fungal infection is extremely relevant for treatment options and prognoses, early diagnosis and clinical intervention can greatly affect outcomes and prognoses for patients.
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BMC Infectious Diseases, 7.07.2022
Tilføjet 7.07.2022
Abstract
Background
In children in the ICU, catheter-related bloodstream infections (CRBSI) have also been linked to mortality, morbidity, and healthcare costs. Although CRBSI poses many potential risks, including the need to avoid femoral access, there is debate regarding whether jugular access is preferable to femoral access in adults. Study reports support both perspectives. There is no consensus in meta-analyses. Children have yet to be examined in depth. Based on compliance with the central line bundle check lists, we aim to determine CRBSI risk in pediatric intensive care units for patients with non-tunneled femoral and internal jugular venous access.
Methods
A retrospective cohort study was conducted on patients with central venous catheters in the pediatric ICU of King Abdulaziz University Hospital between January 1st, 2017 and January 30th, 2018. For the post-match balance, we use a standardized mean difference of less than 0.1 after inverse probability treatment weighting for all baseline covariates, and then we draw causal conclusions. As a final step, the Rosenbaum sensitivity test was applied to see if any bias influenced the results.
Results
We recorded 145 central lines and 1463 central line days with 49 femoral accesses (33.79%) and 96 internal jugular accesses (66.21%). CRBSI per 1000 central line days are 4.10, along with standardized infections of 3.16. CRBSI risk differed between non-tunneled femoral vein access and internal jugular vein access by 0.074 (− 0.021, 0.167), P-value 0.06, and relative risk was 4.67 (0.87–25.05). Using our model, the actual probability was 4.14% (0.01–0.074) and the counterfactual probability was 2.79% (− 0.006, 0.062). An unobserved confounding factor was not identified in the sensitivity analysis.
Conclusions
So long as the central line bundle is maintained, a femoral line does not increase the risk of CRBSI. Causation can be determined through propensity score weighting, as this is a trustworthy method of estimating causality. There is no better way to gain further insight in this regard than through the use of randomized, double-blinded, multicenter studies.
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BMC Infectious Diseases, 7.07.2022
Tilføjet 7.07.2022
Abstract
Introduction
Neisseria meningitidis (Nm) is a major cause of meningitis and septicemia. Most people are infected with latent infections or are carriers. We aimed to estimate the carriage prevalence of Nm in China.
Methods
We did a systematic review of published work to assess the prevalence of meningococcal carriage in China. The quality assessment was conducted by the risk of bias tool according to Damian Hoy’s study. We estimated pooled proportions of carriage and its 95% confidence interval (95% CI) using fixed effect model for studies with low heterogeneity and random effect model for studies with moderate or high heterogeneity. Subgroup analyses were also conducted by region and age group.
Results
In total, 115 studies were included. The quality evaluation grades of all included documents were medium or high grade. The weighted proportion of carriage was 2.86% (95% CI: 2.25–3.47%, I2: 97.7%, p = 0). The carriage prevalence of Nm varied between provinces, ranged from 0.00% (95% CI: 0.00–0.66%) to 15.50% (95% CI: 14.01–16.99%). Persons aged 15 years and older had the highest carriage 4.38% (95% CI: 3.15–5.62%, I2: 95.4%, p < 0.0001), and children under 6 years of age had the lowest carriage 1.01% (95% CI: 0.59–1.43%, I2: 74.4%, p < 0.0001). In positive carriers, serogroup B (41.62%, 95% CI: 35.25–48.00%, I2: 98.6%, p = 0) took up the highest proportion, and serogroup X (0.02%, 95% CI: 0.00–0.09%, I2: 0.00%, p = 1) accounted for the lowest proportion.
Conclusion
The meningococcal carriage in China was estimated low and varied by region and age group. Understanding the epidemiology and transmission dynamics of meningococcal infection in insidious spreaders is essential for optimizing the meningococcal immunization strategies of the country.
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BMC Infectious Diseases, 7.07.2022
Tilføjet 7.07.2022
Abstract
Background
Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is more frequent among incarcerated people than in general population. In the DAAs era, the short schedules and the low risk of adverse reactions, increased the number of HCV treatments. However, the most part of literature reports lack of incarcerated women inclusion in studies on field. Our aim is to assess the screening execution, HCV prevalence, and DAAs treatment among incarcerated women. A focused insight on quick vs standard diagnosis and staging approach will be also provided.
Methods
Incarcerated women from 4 Italian regions’ penitentiary institutes were included. HCV screening was executed with HCV saliva test (QuickOral Test®) or phlebotomy. Stage of liver fibrosis was evaluated with FIB-4 value or fibroscan®, based on physicians’ decision. Treatment prescription followed national protocols.
Results
We included 156 women, 89 (57%) were Italian, mean age was 41 ± 10 years, and 28 (17.9%) were people who inject drugs (PWIDs). Overall, the HCV seroprevalence was 20.5%. Being PWID and on opioid substitution therapy (OST) were significantly associated with serological status (p-value < 0.001). Of them, the 75.5% of patients had active infection, the most frequent genotype was 3a (50%). Among them, 4 (16.6%) and 6 (25%) had psychosis or alcohol abuse history. The 62.5%, 25% and 12.5% had low, intermediate, and advanced fibrosis, respectively. Out of the 24 HCV-RNA positive patients, the 75% underwent to DAAs treatment. The sustained virological response (SVR12) was achieved in 88.8% of cases. When evaluating the influence of quick diagnosis and staging methods vs standard phlebotomy and fibroscan® on SVR12, FIB-4 use showed higher performance for retainment in treatment during prison staying (p = 0.015), while the use of quick saliva test had no influence on the outcome (p = 0.22).
Conclusion
HCV seroprevalence and active infections are very high among incarcerated women. More tailored interventions should be focused on HCV diagnosis and treatment in female prison population. The use of quick staging methods (FIB-4) is useful to increase SVR12 achievement without delays caused by the fibroscan® awaiting.
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Himadri Nath, Abinash Mallick, Subrata Roy, Tathagata Kayal, Sumit Ranjan, Susanta Sengupta, Soumi Sukla, Subhajit Biswas
International Journal of Infectious Diseases, 7.07.2022
Tilføjet 7.07.2022
Djamal Haouchine, Stéphane Mantelet, Anthony Marteau, Sophie Brun, Philippe Dabi, Meryem Abbas, Arezki Izri, Mohammad Akhoundi
International Journal of Infectious Diseases, 7.07.2022
Tilføjet 7.07.2022
Eric J. Rubin, Lindsey R. Baden, Stephen Morrissey
New England Journal of Medicine, 6.07.2022
Tilføjet 7.07.2022
Xin Zhao, Rong Zhang, Shitong Qiao, Xiao Wang, Weibing Zhang, Wenjing Ruan, Lianpan Dai, Pengcheng Han, George F. Gao
New England Journal of Medicine, 6.07.2022
Tilføjet 7.07.2022
Trusha Nana, Olga Perovic, Vindana Chibabhai
Clinical Microbiology and Infection, 6.07.2022
Tilføjet 7.07.2022
The aim of this laboratory-based study was to compare carbapenem minimum inhibitory concentrations (MICs) yielded by Sensititre, Vitek 2, MicroScan WalkAway plus and Etest for OXA-48-like Klebsiella pneumoniae isolates.
Læs mere Tjek på PubMedStephen R. Doyle
Trends in Parasitology, 6.07.2022
Tilføjet 7.07.2022
Rapid advancement in high-throughput sequencing and analytical approaches has seen a steady increase in the generation of genomic resources for helminth parasites. Now, helminth genomes and their annotations are a cornerstone of numerous efforts to compare genetic and transcriptomic variation, from single cells to populations of globally distributed parasites, to genome modifications to understand gene function. Our understanding of helminths is increasingly reliant on these genomic resources, which are primarily static once published and vary widely in quality and completeness between species.
Læs mere Tjek på PubMedHannah Charles, Mateo Prochazka, Katie Thorley, Adam Crewdson, David R Greig, Claire Jenkins, Anais Painset, Helen Fifer, Lynda Browning, Paul Cabrey, Robert Smith, Daniel Richardson, Laura Waters, Katy Sinka, Gauri Godbole, Outbreak Control Team
Lancet Infectious Diseases, 7.07.2022
Tilføjet 7.07.2022
We highlight the rapid dissemination of XDR ESBL-producing S sonnei in sexual networks of MSM. We recommend strengthening shigella testing where clinically indicated, antimicrobial-resistance surveillance, and integrated health promotion messaging among all MSM, including PrEP users, to reduce the burden of shigellosis.
Læs mere Tjek på PubMedMarcus Y Chen, Deborah A Williamson
Lancet Infectious Diseases, 7.07.2022
Tilføjet 7.07.2022
Over the past decade, we have seen major international outbreaks of viruses and bacteria—that are usually transmitted through non-sexual person-to-person contact—resulting from sexual transmission and spread through sexual networks. This includes the global dissemination of hepatitis A and antimicrobial-resistant Shigella among men who have sex with men.1 These outbreaks have occurred against a backdrop of sustained transmission and increasing prevalence of established sexually transmitted infections such as syphilis and gonorrhoea in many countries, which have resulted in widespread morbidity.
Læs mere Tjek på PubMedChristopher Chew, Nikhilesh Thapa, Henry Ogbuagu, Merin Varghese, Dhaval Patel, Raza Abbas, Jason Oh, Molla Teshome, Khaja Mohammed, Sohail Saleem, Deepak Aggarwal, Barry Barns, April McDonald, Claudia Ormenisan-Gherasim
Lancet Infectious Diseases, 7.07.2022
Tilføjet 7.07.2022
Pulmonary blastomycosis is a respiratory disease that is caused by the fungus Blastomyces spp, which is acquired through inhalation of the fungal spores. Blastomycosis is relatively uncommon, with yearly incidence rate of 1–2 cases per 100 000 people. Blastomycosis is a disease that is endemic to the midwest and southern regions of the USA, most commonly affecting immunocompromised patients. About 50% of patients are asymptomatic, but for those who progress to acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) mortality can be as high as 80%.
Læs mere Tjek på PubMedGaspard Mande, Innocent Akonda, Anja De Weggheleire, Isabel Brosius, Laurens Liesenborghs, Emmanuel Bottieau, Noam Ross, Guy -Crispin Gembu, Robert Colebunders, Erik Verheyen, Ngonda Dauly, Herwig Leirs, Anne Laudisoit
International Journal of Infectious Diseases, 6.07.2022
Tilføjet 7.07.2022
: Following an outbreak of cases of vesicular-pustular rash with fever evocative of human monkeypox in Bas-Uélé province, Democratic Republic of Congo, surveillance was strengthened.
Læs mere Tjek på PubMedGabriela Abelenda-Alonso, Alexander Rombauts, Carlota Gudiol, Esther García-Lerma, Natalia Pallarés, Carmen Ardanuy, Laura Calatayud, Jordi Niubó, Cristian Tebé, Jordi Carratalà
Clinical Microbiology and Infection, 6.07.2022
Tilføjet 7.07.2022
The usefulness of routine microbiological testing for rationalizing antibiotic use in hospitalized patients with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) continues to be a subject of debate. We aim to determine the effect of positive microbiological testing on antimicrobial de-escalation and clinical outcomes in CAP.
Læs mere Tjek på PubMedAndrea Du Toit
Nat Rev Microbiol, 6.07.2022
Tilføjet 6.07.2022
Nature Reviews Microbiology, Published online: 06 July 2022; doi:10.1038/s41579-022-00771-4This study shows that flaviviruses promote the proliferation of acetophenone-producing skin commensal bacteria, which enhances mosquito attraction and thus flavivirus transmission.
Læs mere Tjek på PubMedJerry Joe E. K. Harrison, Dario Oliveira Passos, Jessica F. Bruhn, Joseph D. Bauman, Lynda Tuberty, Jeffrey J. DeStefano, Francesc Xavier Ruiz, Dmitry Lyumkis, Eddy Arnold
Science Advances, 6.07.2022
Tilføjet 6.07.2022
Jacob McPherson, Chenlin Hu, Khurshida Begum, Weiqun Wang, Chris Lancaster, Anne J. Gonzales-Luna, Caroline Loveall, Michael H. Silverman, M. Jahangir Alam, Kevin W. Garey aUniversity of Houstongrid.266436.3 College of Pharmacy, Houston, Texas, USA bAcurx Pharmaceuticals, Staten Island, New York, USA
Antimicrobial Agents And Chemotherapy, 6.07.2022
Tilføjet 6.07.2022
Elangwe M. Sarah-Matio, Emilie Guillochon, Sandrine E. Nsango, Luc Abate, Christelle M. Ngou, Gaelle A. Bouopda, Lionel B. Feufack-Donfack, Albert N. Bayibéki, Majoline Tchioffo Tsapi, Arthur Talman, Alejandro Marin-Menendez, Lawrence Ayong, Antoine Claessens, Thierry Lefèvre, Antoine Berry, Isabelle Morlais aMIVEGEC, Université de Montpellier, CNRS, IRD, Montpellier, France bMalaria Research Unit, Centre Pasteur du Cameroun, Yaoundé, Cameroon cUniversité de Paris, MERIT, IRD, Paris, France dDepartment of Biological Sciences, Faculté de Médecine et des Sciences Pharmaceutiques, Université de Douala, Douala, Cameroon eUniversité Catholique d’Afrique Centrale, Yaoundé, Cameroon fLPHI, Université de Montpellier, INSERM, CNRS, Montpellier, France gInstitut Toulousain des Maladies Infectieuses et Inflammatoires (Infinity), Université Toulouse, CNRS UMR5051, INSERM UMR1291, UPS, Toulouse, France hService de Parasitologie_Mycologie, Centre Hospitalier Universitaire de Toulouse, Toulouse, France
Antimicrobial Agents And Chemotherapy, 6.07.2022
Tilføjet 6.07.2022
Nilesh Kumta, Aaron J. Heffernan, Menino Osbert Cotta, Steven C. Wallis, Amelia Livermore, Therese Starr, Wai Tat Wong, Gavin M. Joynt, Jeffrey Lipman, Jason A. Roberts aUniversity of Queenslandgrid.1003.2 Centre for Clinical Research, Faculty of Medicine, University of Queensland, Herston, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia bSchool of Medicine, Griffith University, Southport, Queensland, Australia cDepartment of Intensive Care Medicine, Royal Brisbane and Women’s Hospital, Herston, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia dDepartment of Anaesthesia and Intensive Care, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China eJamieson Trauma Institute, Royal Brisbane and Women’s Hospital, Herston, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia fDivision of Anaesthesiology, Critical Care Emergency and Pain Medicine, Nimes University Hospital, University of Montpellier, Nimes, France gPharmacy Department, Royal Brisbane and Women’s Hospital, Herston, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
Antimicrobial Agents And Chemotherapy, 6.07.2022
Tilføjet 6.07.2022
Nitasha D. Menon, Samuel Penziner, Elizabeth T. Montaño, Raymond Zurich, David T. Pride, Bipin G. Nair, Geetha B. Kumar, Victor Nizet aSchool of Biotechnology, Amrita Vishwa Vidyapeetham, Amritapuri, Kerala, India bDivision of Host-Microbe Systems and Therapeutics, Department of Pediatrics, UC San Diego, La Jolla, California, USA cDivision of Infectious Diseases and Global Public Health, Department of Medicine, UC San Diego, La Jolla, California, USA dDepartment of Pathology, UC San Diego, La Jolla, California, USA eTata Institute for Genetics and Society (TIGS), Bangalore, Karnataka, India fSkaggs School of Pharmacy and Pharmaceutical Sciences, UC San Diego, La Jolla, California, USA
Antimicrobial Agents And Chemotherapy, 6.07.2022
Tilføjet 6.07.2022
Isaac O. Onkanga, Rachael Hamilton, Pauline N. M. Mwinzi, Thomas Schneider, Bartholomew N. Ondigo, Huldah Sang, Edna Ondari, Fredrick Rawago, Walter Jaoko, Maurice R. Odiere, Lisa Ganley-Leal aCenter for Global Health Research, Kenya Medical Research Institutegrid.33058.3d, Kisumu, Kenya bKAVI-Institute of Clinical Research, and Department of Medical Microbiology & Immunology, University of Nairobigrid.10604.33, Kenya cElegance Biotechnologies, LLC, Wayne, Pennsylvania, USA dDepartment of Biochemistry and Molecular Biology, Egerton University, Nakuru, Kenya, Guy H. Palmer
Infection and Immunity, 6.07.2022
Tilføjet 6.07.2022
Steve Van den Bulck, Jonas Crèvecoeur, Bert Aertgeerts, Nicolas Delvaux, Thomas Neyens, Gijs Van Pottelbergh, Patrick Coursier, Bert Vaes
PLoS One Infectious Diseases, 6.07.2022
Tilføjet 6.07.2022
by Steve Van den Bulck, Jonas Crèvecoeur, Bert Aertgeerts, Nicolas Delvaux, Thomas Neyens, Gijs Van Pottelbergh, Patrick Coursier, Bert Vaes
Introduction The Covid-19 pandemic had a tremendous impact on healthcare but uncertainty remains about the extent to which primary care provision was affected. Therefore, this paper aims to assess the impact on primary care provision and the evolution of the incidence of disease during the first year of the Covid-19 pandemic in Flanders (Belgium). Methods Care provision was defined as the number of new entries added to a patient’s medical history. Pre-pandemic care provision (February 1, 2018–January 31, 2020) was compared with care provision during the pandemic (February 1, 2020-January 31, 2021). A large morbidity registry (Intego) was used. Regression models compared the effect of demographic characteristics on care provision and on acute and chronic diagnoses incidence both prior and during the pandemic. Results During the first year of the Covid-19 pandemic, overall care provision increased with 9.1% (95%CI 8.5%;9.6%). There was an increase in acute diagnoses of 5.1% (95%CI 4.2%;6.0%) and a decrease in the selected chronic diagnoses of 12.8% (95% CI 7.0%;18.4%). Obesity was an exception with an overall incidence increase. The pandemic led to strong fluctuations in care provision that were not the same for all types of care and all demographic groups in Flanders. Relative to other groups in the population, the pandemic caused a reduction in care provision for children aged 0–17 year and patients from a lower socio-economic situation. Conclusion This paper strengthened the claim that Covid-19 should be considered as a syndemic instead of a pandemic. During the first Covid-19 year, overall care provision and the incidence of acute diagnoses increased, whereas chronic diseases’ incidence decreased, except for obesity diagnoses which increased. More granular, care provision and chronic diseases’ incidence decreased during the lockdowns, especially for people with a lower socio-economic status. After the lockdowns they both returned to baseline.
Læs mere Tjek på PubMedAdeoye John Kayode, Anthony Ifeanyi Okoh
PLoS One Infectious Diseases, 6.07.2022
Tilføjet 6.07.2022
by Adeoye John Kayode, Anthony Ifeanyi Okoh
The occurrence and the antibiogram signatures of Listeria monocytogenes (Lm) recovered from 65 milk samples and its products within the Eastern Cape province were examined. The EN ISO 11290:2017 procedures Parts 1 and 2 described by the International Organization for Standardization for the enumeration and isolation of Lm was adopted for the study. Lm was detected in 18.46% of all the samples examined, and the strains recovered from the samples belong to serotypes 4b and 1/2b. The virulence determinants including prfA, plcA, plcB, inlA, inlC, hly, mpl, actA, inlJ and inlB were detected in all the isolates. About 95.24% of the studied Lm isolates demonstrated potential capacity for biofilm formation. The antibiogram profile revealed high resistance against sulfamethoxazole (71.43%), trimethoprim (52.86%); erythromycin, cefotetan and oxytetracycline (42.86% respectively). About 85.71% exhibited multiple antibiotic resistance phenotypes against the test antibiotics. The resistance determinants encoding resistance against the β-lactamase antibiotics [such as the blaTEM, blaSHV, blaTEM variants (TEM-1 and TEM-2) and the blaZ], the tetracycline resistance genes (including tetA, tetD, tetG and tetM and tetK) were detected among resistant isolates. In addition, the aminoglycoside resistance gene aph (3)-IIa (aphA2)a was detected only in one isolate. Finally, the sulfonamide resistance genes including the sul2 and the sul1 genes were the most frequently observed among Lm isolates. Generally, 71.43% of all Lm isolates recovered from the samples investigated harboured one or more resistance genes encoding resistance against various antibiotics. The antibiogram signatures of Lm isolates observed in this study is an indication that empirical treatment of listeriosis may be challenging in the future as the pathogen may obliterate the success of antibiotics. We, therefore, advocate for the recognition of the One Health approach to ensuring food safety and curbing the spread of antimicrobial resistance in food.
Læs mere Tjek på PubMedFrank Baiden, Suzanne Fleck, Bailah Leigh, Philip Ayieko, Daniel Tindanbil, Tuda Otieno, Bolarinde Lawal, Mattu Tehtor, Maariam Rogers, Lazarus Odeny, Mary H. Hodges, Mustapha Sonnie, Mohamed Samai, David Ishola, Brett Lowe, Deborah Watson-Jones, Brian Greenwood
PLoS One Infectious Diseases, 6.07.2022
Tilføjet 6.07.2022
by Frank Baiden, Suzanne Fleck, Bailah Leigh, Philip Ayieko, Daniel Tindanbil, Tuda Otieno, Bolarinde Lawal, Mattu Tehtor, Maariam Rogers, Lazarus Odeny, Mary H. Hodges, Mustapha Sonnie, Mohamed Samai, David Ishola, Brett Lowe, Deborah Watson-Jones, Brian Greenwood
Introduction Recurrent parasitic infections may influence the immune response to vaccines. In the Partnership for Research on Ebola VACcinations extended follow-UP and clinical research capacity build-UP (PREVAC-UP) study being undertaken in Mambolo, northern Sierra Leone, participants are being followed up to assess the potential impact of exposure to malaria and/or helminth infections on long-term immune response to two Ebola vaccines. To support the development of the assays that will be used in this evaluation, a parasitological survey was conducted in Mambolo between November 2019 and February 2020. Methods Healthy individuals aged ≥1 year who were resident in Mambolo Chiefdom were selected using a stratified sampling approach and questionnaires were administered to explore their sociodemographic characteristics. Microscopy was used to detect malaria parasites, intestinal helminths and urinary schistosome infections. Rapid blood tests were used to detect infections with Onchocerca volvulus and Wuchereria bancrofti. We estimated the overall prevalence of these infections and used adjusted logistic regression models to explore risk factors for malaria and hookworm infection. Results Eight hundred and fifteen (815) residents, 50.9% of whom were female were surveyed. Overall, 309 (39.1%) of 791 persons tested for malaria had a positive blood slide; Plasmodium falciparum was the dominant species. Helminth infection was detected in 122 (15.0%) of 815 stool samples including three mixed infections. The helminth infections comprised 102 (12.5%) cases of hookworm, 11 (1.3%) cases of Trichuris trichiura, 10 (1.2%) cases of Schistosoma mansoni and two (0.2%) cases of Ascaris lumbricoides. Being male (OR = 2.01, 95% CI 1.15–3.50) and residing in a non-riverine community (OR = 4.02, 95%CI 2.32–6.98) were the factors associated with hookworm infection. Onchocerca volvulus and Wuchereria bancrofti infections were found in 3.3% and 0.4% of participants respectively. Conclusion Malaria and hookworm are the most prevalent parasite infections and those most likely to influence long-term immune response to Ebola vaccines among the trial participants.
Læs mere Tjek på PubMedCláudio Manuel Rodrigues, Francisco Dourado, Daniel Savignon Marinho, Gilberto Salles Gazêta, Lena Geise
PLoS One Infectious Diseases, 6.07.2022
Tilføjet 6.07.2022
by Cláudio Manuel Rodrigues, Francisco Dourado, Daniel Savignon Marinho, Gilberto Salles Gazêta, Lena Geise
Spotted fever rickettsiosis is a zoonosis transmitted by ticks, having a varied clinical course that can lead to death if not managed properly. In Brazil it is more commonly observed in the Southeast, being an emerging public health problem. Hazard mapping models are common in different areas of knowledge, including public health, as a way of inferring reality and seeking to reduce or prevent damage. The aim of this study is to offer a spatial heuristic methodology for assessing the potential risk of transmission of spotted fever in the Rio de Janeiro state, located in the southeastern region of Brazil. For this, we used geospatial tools associated with eco-epidemiological data related to the clinical profile of the disease. The results achieved were substantially encouraging, considering that there are territories with greater or lesser expectation of risk for spotted fever in the study area. We observed that there are important distinctions between the two rickettsiosis scenarios in the same geographic space and that the areas where there is a greater potential risk of contracting rickettsiosis coincide with the administrative regions that concentrated the cases of hospitalization and deaths from the disease, concluding that the scenery found are relevant to the case series for the disease and that the planning of surveillance actions can gain in quality if the use of this spatial analysis tool is incorporated into the routine of local health management.
Læs mere Tjek på PubMedSebastian Rauch, Louisa Arnold, Zelda Stuerner, Juergen Rauh, Michael Rost
PLoS One Infectious Diseases, 6.07.2022
Tilføjet 6.07.2022
by Sebastian Rauch, Louisa Arnold, Zelda Stuerner, Juergen Rauh, Michael Rost
While the place of birth plays a crucial role for women’s birth experiences, the interest in out-of-hospital births has increased during the Covid-19 pandemic. Related to this, various international policies recommend enabling women to choose where to give birth. We aimed to analyze Swiss women’s choice between birth hospitals and birth centers. Employing spatial accessibility analysis, we incorporated four data types: highly disaggregated population data, administrative data, street network data, addresses of birth hospitals and birth centers. 99.8% of Swiss women of childbearing age were included in the analysis (N = 1.896.669). We modelled car travel times from a woman’s residence to the nearest birth hospital and birth center. If both birth settings were available within 30 minutes, a woman was considered to have a true choice. Only 58.2% of women had a true choice. This proportion varied considerably across Swiss federal states. The main barrier to a true choice was limited accessibility of birth centers. Median travel time to birth hospitals was 9.8 (M = 12.5), to birth centers 23.9 minutes (M = 28.5). Swiss women are insufficiently empowered to exercise their reproductive autonomy as their choice of place of birth is significantly limited by geographical constraints. It is an ethical and medical imperative to provide women with a true choice. We provide high-resolution insights into the accessibility of birth settings and strong arguments to (re-)examine the need for further birth centers (and birth hospitals) in specific geographical areas. Policy-makers are obligated to improve the accessibility of birth centers to advance women’s autonomy and enhance maternal health outcomes after childbirth. The Covid-19 pandemic offers an opportunity to shift policy.
Læs mere Tjek på PubMedAmira Jamoussi, Samia Ayed, Takoua Merhabene, Hamdi Doghri, Jalila Ben Khelil, Mohamed Besbes
PLoS One Infectious Diseases, 6.07.2022
Tilføjet 6.07.2022
by Amira Jamoussi, Samia Ayed, Takoua Merhabene, Hamdi Doghri, Jalila Ben Khelil, Mohamed Besbes
Introduction Influenza A virus infection is a contagious acute respiratory infection which mostly evolves in an epidemic form, less frequently as pandemic outbreaks. It can take a severe clinical form that needs to be managed in intensive care unit (ICU). The aim of this study was to describe the epidemiological and clinical aspects of influenza A, then to determine independent predictive factors of ICU mortality in Abderrahmen Mami hospital, Ariana, Tunisia. Methods It was a single-center study, including all hospitalized patients in intensive care, between November 1st, 2009 and October 31st, 2019, with influenza A virus infection. We recorded demographic, clinical and biological data, evolving features; then multivariate analysis of the predictive factors of ICU mortality was realized. Results During the study period (10 consecutive seasons), 120 patients having severe Influenza A were admitted (Proportion = 2.5%) from all hospitalized patients, with a median age of 48 years and a gender-ratio of 1.14. Among women, 14 were pregnant. Only 7 patients (5.8%) have had seasonal flu vaccine during the year before ICU admission. The median values of the Simplified Acute Physiology Score II, Acute Physiologic and Chronic Health Evaluation II and Sepsis-related Organ Failure Assessment were respectively 26, 10 and 3. Virus strains identified with polymerase chain reaction were H1N1 pdm09 (84.2%) and H3N2 (15.8%). Antiviral therapy was prescribed in 88 (73.3%) patients. A co-infection was recorded in 19 cases: bacterial (n = 17) and aspergillaire (n = 2). An acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) was diagnosed in 82 patients. Non-invasive ventilation (NIV) was conducted for 72 (60%) patients with success in 34 cases. Endotracheal intubation was performed in 59 patients with median duration of invasive mechanical ventilation 8 [3.25–13] days. The most frequent complications were acute kidney injury (n = 50, 41.7%), shock (n = 48, 40%), hospital-acquired infections (n = 46, 38.8%) and thromboembolic events (n = 19, 15.8%). The overall ICU mortality rate was of 31.7% (deceased n = 38). Independent predictive factors of ICU mortality identified were: age above 56 years (OR = 7.417; IC95% [1.474–37.317]; p = 0.015), PaO2/FiO2 ≤ 95 mmHg (OR = 9.078; IC95% [1.636–50.363]; p = 0.012) and lymphocytes count ≤ 1.325 109/L (OR = 10.199; IC95% [1.550–67.101]; p = 0.016). Conclusion Influenza A in ICU is not uncommon, even in A(H1N1) dominant seasons; its management is highly demanding. It is responsible for considerable morbi-mortality especially in elderly patients.
Læs mere Tjek på PubMedIzumi Yamatani, Kosaku Komiya, Hisayuki Shuto, Marimu Yamanaka, Mari Yamasue, Hiroki Yoshikawa, Kazufumi Hiramatsu, Jun-ichi Kadota
PLoS One Infectious Diseases, 6.07.2022
Tilføjet 6.07.2022
by Izumi Yamatani, Kosaku Komiya, Hisayuki Shuto, Marimu Yamanaka, Mari Yamasue, Hiroki Yoshikawa, Kazufumi Hiramatsu, Jun-ichi Kadota
Background Although persistent tuberculosis (TB) infection is known to cause calcification in the lungs, the relationship between intrathoracic calcification and the results of the interferon-γ release assay (IGRA) has not been fully elucidated. This study aimed to assess the association between intrathoracic calcification and IGRA results. Methods We retrospectively included consecutive patients who concurrently underwent chest X-ray, chest computed tomography (CT), and an IGRA. Patients with a current diagnosis of active TB or treatment history of active TB or latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) were excluded. The association between calcification according to the chest X-ray or CT and IGRA results were analyzed using binomial logistic regression. Results This study included 574 patients, and 38 (7%) patients had a positive IGRA result. Patients with a positive result were significantly older and had a higher proportion of comorbidities, and history of tuberculosis exposure compared to those with a negative result. Calcification of the lung field and mediastinal lymph nodes according to chest CT was more frequently observed in patients with a positive IGRA result, whereas no significant difference was observed concerning the proportion of lung field calcification on chest X-ray between patients with positive and negative IGRA results. In multivariate analysis, calcification of mediastinal lymph nodes alone (adjusted odds ratio [OR] = 3.82, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.76–8.26) and the combination of lung field and mediastinal lymph node calcification (adjusted OR = 4.12, 95% CI = 1.51–11.76) on chest CT was independently associated with positive IGRA results. Conclusions The finding of mediastinal lymph node calcification, with or without lung field calcification, on chest CT was associated with positive IGRA results independent of TB exposure history. Previous TB infection including eliminated TB infection and LTBI can be suspected when calcified lymph nodes in are observed the mediastinum on chest CT.
Læs mere Tjek på PubMedAli Qureshi, Syed Azhar Syed Sulaiman, Narendar Kumar, Pir Abdul Ahad Aziz Qureshi
PLoS One Infectious Diseases, 6.07.2022
Tilføjet 6.07.2022
by Ali Qureshi, Syed Azhar Syed Sulaiman, Narendar Kumar, Pir Abdul Ahad Aziz Qureshi
Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-1), notoriously known as COVID-19, emerged in 2019 and was responsible for causing acute respiratory collapse. Moreover, in September 2020, new variant cases of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 were reported in the United Kingdom, with many patients and deaths. This study aimed to see knowledge, perception, and fear among the global population towards a new variant of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, known as Omicron (B.1.1.529). This online cross-sectional global study was conducted during the emergence of the B.1.1.529 variant, also known as the Omicron variant. The survey was carried out from 2nd December 2021 to 3rd January 2022. The descriptive analysis was presented as frequencies (N), percentages (%), and mean ± standard deviation (m ± SD). The association between dependent and categorical independent variables was determined using the Chi-square test (x2). Statistical analysis was performed by using SPSS version 23. Of 353 respondents, approximately 61% were females. One hundred fifty-four respondents were in the age group of 18–27 years. The average age was 31.53±10.3 (mean± SD). The majority of respondents (43.9%) were from Indonesia. The mean knowledge score about the Omicron variant was 3.18±1.14. Our study suggests that people have some knowledge about the new variant, Omicron (B.1.1.529). Besides, there was a significant association (p = 0.05) for the perception of the fatality rate of Omicron among the respondents from different countries. However, there is still an ample research gap in enlightening people about this infection (B.1.1.529).
Læs mere Tjek på PubMedVipin Kumar, Ayushi Mishra, Awadehesh Kumar Yadav, Sushma Rathaur, Anchal Singh
PLoS One Infectious Diseases, 6.07.2022
Tilføjet 6.07.2022
by Vipin Kumar, Ayushi Mishra, Awadehesh Kumar Yadav, Sushma Rathaur, Anchal Singh
Lymphatic Filariasis (LF) affects more than 863 million people in tropical and subtropical areas of the world, causing high morbidity and long illnesses leading to social exclusion and loss of wages. A combination of drugs Ivermectin, Diethylcarbamazine citrate and Albendazole is recommended by WHO to accelerate the Global Programme to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis (GPELF). To assess the outcome of GPELF, to re-evaluate and to formulate further strategies there is an imperative need for high quality diagnostic markers. This study was undertaken to identify Lymphatic Filarial biomarkers which can detect LF infections in asymptomatic cases and would also serve as indicators for differentiating among different clinical stages of the disease. A combination of Fourier-transform infrared spectroscopy (FT-IR), MMP zymography, SDS-PAGE, classical 2DE along with MALDI-TOF/MS was done to identify LF biomarkers from serum samples of different stages of LF patients. FT-IR spectroscopy coupled with univariate and multivariate analysis of LF serum samples, revealed significant differences in peak intensity at 3300, 2950, 1645, 1540 and 1448 cm-1 (p<0.05). The proteomics analysis results showed that various proteins were differentially expressed (p<0.05), including C-reactive protein, α-1-antitrypsin, heterogeneous nuclear ribonucleoprotein D like, apolipoproteins A-I and A-IV in different LF clinical stages. Functional pathway analysis suggested the involvement of differentially expressed proteins in vital physiological pathways like acute phase response, hemostasis, complement and coagulation cascades. Furthermore, the differentiation between different stages of LF cases and biomarkers identified in this study clearly demonstrates the potential of the human serum profiling approach for LF detection. To our knowledge, this is the first report of comparative human serum profiling in different categories of LF patients.
Læs mere Tjek på PubMedCristine Dieter, Letícia de Almeida Brondani, Cristiane Bauermann Leitão, Fernando Gerchman, Natália Emerim Lemos, Daisy Crispim
PLoS One Infectious Diseases, 6.07.2022
Tilføjet 6.07.2022
by Cristine Dieter, Letícia de Almeida Brondani, Cristiane Bauermann Leitão, Fernando Gerchman, Natália Emerim Lemos, Daisy Crispim
Although advanced age and presence of comorbidities significantly impact the variation observed in the clinical symptoms of COVID-19, it has been suggested that genetic variants may also be involved in the disease. Thus, the aim of this study was to perform a systematic review with meta-analysis of the literature to identify genetic polymorphisms that are likely to contribute to COVID-19 pathogenesis. Pubmed, Embase and GWAS Catalog repositories were systematically searched to retrieve articles that investigated associations between polymorphisms and COVID-19. For polymorphisms analyzed in 3 or more studies, pooled OR with 95% CI were calculated using random or fixed effect models in the Stata Software. Sixty-four eligible articles were included in this review. In total, 8 polymorphisms in 7 candidate genes and 74 alleles of the HLA loci were analyzed in 3 or more studies. The HLA-A*30 and CCR5 rs333Del alleles were associated with protection against COVID-19 infection, while the APOE rs429358C allele was associated with risk for this disease. Regarding COVID-19 severity, the HLA-A*33, ACE1 Ins, and TMPRSS2 rs12329760T alleles were associated with protection against severe forms, while the HLA-B*38, HLA-C*6, and ApoE rs429358C alleles were associated with risk for severe forms of COVID-19. In conclusion, polymorphisms in the ApoE, ACE1, TMPRSS2, CCR5, and HLA loci appear to be involved in the susceptibility to and/or severity of COVID-19.
Læs mere Tjek på PubMedRobert J. Scheffler, Benjamin P. Bratton, Zemer Gitai
PLoS One Infectious Diseases, 6.07.2022
Tilføjet 6.07.2022
by Robert J. Scheffler, Benjamin P. Bratton, Zemer Gitai
Pseudomonas aeruginosa is a significant threat in healthcare settings where it deploys a wide host of virulence factors to cause disease. Many virulence-related phenotypes such as pyocyanin production, biofilm formation, and twitching motility have been implicated in causing disease in a number of hosts. In this study, we investigate these three virulence factors in a collection of 22 clinical strains isolated from blood stream infections. Despite the fact that all 22 strains caused disease and came from the same body site of different patients, they show significant variability in assays for each of the three specific phenotypes examined. There was no significant correlation between the strength of the three phenotypes across our collection, suggesting that they can be independently modulated. Furthermore, strains deficient in each of the virulence-associated phenotypes examined could be identified. To understand the genetic basis of this variability we sequenced the genomes of the 22 strains. We found that the majority of genes responsible for pyocyanin production, biofilm formation, and twitching motility were highly conserved among the strains despite their phenotypic variability, suggesting that the phenotypic variability is likely due to regulatory changes. Our findings thus demonstrate that no one lab-assayed phenotype of pyocyanin production, biofilm production, and twitching motility is necessary for a P. aeruginosa strain to cause blood stream infection and that additional factors may be needed to fully predict what strains will lead to specific human diseases.
Læs mere Tjek på PubMedRanjit Kumar Paul, Md. Yeasin, Pramod Kumar, Prabhakar Kumar, M. Balasubramanian, H. S. Roy, A. K. Paul, Ajit Gupta
PLoS One Infectious Diseases, 6.07.2022
Tilføjet 6.07.2022
by Ranjit Kumar Paul, Md. Yeasin, Pramod Kumar, Prabhakar Kumar, M. Balasubramanian, H. S. Roy, A. K. Paul, Ajit Gupta
Background Price forecasting of perishable crop like vegetables has importance implications to the farmers, traders as well as consumers. Timely and accurate forecast of the price helps the farmers switch between the alternative nearby markets to sale their produce and getting good prices. The farmers can use the information to make choices around the timing of marketing. For forecasting price of agricultural commodities, several statistical models have been applied in past but those models have their own limitations in terms of assumptions. Methods In recent times, Machine Learning (ML) techniques have been much successful in modeling time series data. Though, numerous empirical studies have shown that ML approaches outperform time series models in forecasting time series, but their application in forecasting vegetables prices in India is scared. In the present investigation, an attempt has been made to explore efficient ML algorithms e.g. Generalized Neural Network (GRNN), Support Vector Regression (SVR), Random Forest (RF) and Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM) for forecasting wholesale price of Brinjal in seventeen major markets of Odisha, India. Results An empirical comparison of the predictive accuracies of different models with that of the usual stochastic model i.e. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model is carried out and it is observed that ML techniques particularly GRNN performs better in most of the cases. The superiority of the models is established by means of Model Confidence Set (MCS), and other accuracy measures such as Mean Error (ME), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Mean Absolute Prediction Error (MAPE). To this end, Diebold-Mariano test is performed to test for the significant differences in predictive accuracy of different models. Conclusions Among the machine learning techniques, GRNN performs better in all the seventeen markets as compared to other techniques. RF performs at par with GRNN in four markets. The accuracies of other techniques such as SVR, GBM and ARIMA are not up to the mark.
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